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House price growth hits 17-year high, but is it slowing down?

House price growth hits 17-year high, but is it slowing down?

You’d have to go all the way back to the 2004 Athens Olympics to find a time when house price growth was faster than it has recently been. But latest data suggests the golden run has started to slow down.

It’s no secret that house prices have reached record-breaking highs this past year.

In fact, home values grew by 16.1% over the past 12 months – the fastest pace of growth since 2004, according to CoreLogic’s latest Hedonic Home Value Index.

To put that into a little context, the rate of growth over the past year has been so steep that houses in some cities are out-earning some of Australia’s top-paid professionals, including surgeons, anaesthetists and CEOs.

But there are signs that the growth rate is starting to taper.

Signs of a slow down

Australian housing values increased 1.6% in July, a result CoreLogic’s research director Tim Lawless describes as “strong, but losing steam”.

“The monthly growth rate has been trending lower since March this year when the national index rose 2.8%,” Mr Lawless explains.

And in a further sign of a property market slowdown, the value of new housing loan commitments fell 1.6% in June, the first fall in monthly lending figures this year, according to the latest Australian Bureau of Statistics data.

So what’s slowing things down?

With dwelling values rising more in a month than incomes are rising in a year, housing is simply moving out of reach for members of the community, Mr Lawless explains.

Additionally, much of the federal government’s earlier COVID-19 related fiscal support, including JobKeeper and HomeBuilder, have now expired.

“It is likely recent COVID outbreaks and associated lockdowns have contributed to some of the loss of momentum as well, particularly from a transactional perspective in Sydney which is enduring an extended period of restrictions,” CoreLogic’s latest Hedonic Home Value Index report adds.

That said, it should be noted that housing values are continuing to rise substantially faster than average.

Over the past 10 years, the average pace of monthly dwelling value appreciation has been just 0.4%, says CoreLogic.

So what’s ahead?

It’s likely the rate of growth will continue to taper through the second half of 2021 as affordability constraints become more pressing and housing supply gradually lifts, says CoreLogic.

“Other potential headwinds are apparent, including the possibility of tighter credit policies,” adds the CoreLogic report.

On the flip side, demand remains strong and is being aided by record-low mortgage rates and the prospect that interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time.

“A lift in the cash rate is likely to be at least 18 months away,” CoreLogic adds.

“The recent spate of lockdowns is likely to see Australia’s economy once again contract through the September quarter, a factor that is likely to keep rates on hold for a while longer.”

Get in touch

With house prices having just experienced their fastest pace of growth since 2004, it’s as important as ever to purchase your new home with a finance option that’s right for you.

So if you’re a keen homebuyer who wants to explore what options are available to you – including your borrowing capacity – get in touch today. We’d love to run through it with you.

Buy Now Pay Later users put on notice by credit agency

Buy Now Pay Later users put on notice by credit agency

Do you use a Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) service like Afterpay or Zip? If so, be warned that one leading credit reporting agency has made a big change that means your BNPL data will go onto your credit report.

BNPL transactions have risen rapidly over the past few years – so much so that they caught financial regulators and credit reporting agencies a little flat-footed.

But Equifax, one of the three main credit reporting agencies in Australia, looks to have caught up.

In a recent email to brokers and lenders, Equifax states that BNPL accounts and transactions will be included in credit reports from 24 July 2021.

“Expect to see two new BNPL account types available for accounts, enquiries and defaults,” the Equifax email reads.

So what does this mean for your credit score?

Don’t stress, time is on your side!

That’s because it’s still early days and Equifax wants to measure how much BNPL data could affect overall credit scores.

“The new BNPL Comprehensive Credit Reporting (CCR) account types will be quarantined from scores in the short term to prevent any unintended and inappropriate impact on scores. As data builds up over time, we will reassess,” Equifax explains in a FAQ here.

But, Equifax adds, BNPL accounts and transactions will be included in CCR scores as soon as they believe it is sensible to do so.

“We are moving cautiously as we have never seen these types of accounts before, so it is not possible to evaluate and reflect the relationship between [BNPL accounts and transactions] and risk accurately,” they add.

“Equifax will monitor the risk of these accounts as the data accumulates over time.”

But that doesn’t mean lenders won’t be paying attention

It’s worth reiterating that lenders will now still be able to see BNPL transactions and accounts in your Equifax credit report, and according to a parliamentary joint committee this week, they’re already paying very close attention.

Liberal MP and committee chair Andrew Wallace put the following to Zip Co co-founder and chief operating officer Peter Gray: “I have heard that if banks see repayments to buy now, pay later providers, the banks take a very dim view of that person’s credit assessment.”

Mr Gray responded by saying banks would “absolutely” see BNPL providers in a negative light, before later stating: “I can confirm to the committee that the number one reason for [people] closing their [Zip] account is because their bank has told them they need to, to proceed with the mortgage.”

Get in touch today

If you’re worried about what a BNPL account – or multiple accounts – could mean for an upcoming finance application, get in touch with us today.

We’ll be able to run through it with you and give you some pointers on what you can do to get things sorted before applying for finance.

What’s the best day to auction your house?

What’s the best day to auction your house?

Drive or walk around your local suburb mid-morning on a Saturday and chances are you’ll pass a few freshly banged up ‘Auction’ signs. But is Saturday actually the best day to auction your home? New data suggests perhaps not.

We all love a good auction story.

You’ve probably got a mate or two whose favourite dinner party story is the time they crushed all their competitors’ hopes and dreams with a final $10,000 sledgehammer bid.

But for every tenacious bidder, there’s usually an equally pleased vendor.

So what day of the week can sellers generally attract the most bidders to their auction?

The day with the most bidders

Auctions held on Tuesdays at 5pm attract the most active bidders – at 5.9 bidders per auction – according to national data collected by Ray White from 23,100 auctions over the past 12 months.

This is significantly higher than the average of 3.2 bidders per auction, which also happens to be the average number of bidders at auctions held on Saturdays at 11am (the most popular auction time).

That said, results do tend to vary in each capital city.

“Looking at all auctions held over the year, Tuesday at 5pm is the best time to sell. However in Adelaide and Melbourne, it may also pay to look at Friday night,” explains Ray White Chief Economist Nerida Conisbee.

“In Sydney, it is Sunday morning and in Brisbane it is Monday night. Perth is the only market where a standard midday Saturday auction would yield the most active bidders.”

The day with the highest clearance rates

A large number of bidders, however, doesn’t always translate to higher clearance rates.

When it comes to clearance rates, it turns out Friday is the day to beat, according to Ray White Group’s national auction day clearance rates.

Friday 1pm boasts the highest clearance rate at 91.2%, while Saturday 8am comes in at a close second with 90.5%.

“Most auctions in Australia are held on Saturdays between 10am and 1pm,” explains Ms Conisbee.

“[However] holding an auction at a time that is less standard can work to your advantage if selling – there is simply less competition from other properties going to auction at these times,” she adds.

Upgrading or downsizing? Get in touch today

If you’re in the process of selling your current home to upgrade, or downsize, to another property, get in touch with us today to discuss your finance options.

Every family is different – just like every home loan is different. Our job is to find the right match for you.

Green thumbs beware: one-third of veggie gardens contaminated with lead

Green thumbs beware: one-third of veggie gardens contaminated with lead

One of the most exciting things about moving into your own home is doing whatever you want with it, such as growing your own veggie patch. But did you know more than a third of Aussie backyards are contaminated with lead? Here’s how to get your soil tested for free.

Gardening is a bit like your journey into property ownership.

You spot a patch you like, start with modest seedlings/savings, and then with a little hard work, watch it grow into a yielding crop/asset.

A pre-COVID study shows that more than half of Australian households grow some of their own food – including fruit, vegetables and herbs – either at home or in a community garden.

And that figure is likely to have increased since lockdowns inspired many of us to get our hands dirty in the backyard.

But there’s just one problem you may have overlooked

You know those healthy vegetables you’re growing for your friends and your family to enjoy?

Well, it turns out that in more than 35% of yards, the soil those veggies are grown in is contaminated with concerning levels of lead (more than 300 mg/kg), according to a new study based on Macquarie University’s ongoing VegeSafe program.

The study found that homes that were aged, painted, situated near traffic-congested areas or located in the inner-city had the highest soil lead concentrations.

How to get your soil (and household dust levels) tested

The good news is that there’s a free and easy way to get your home’s soil tested.

Simply head over to the VegeSafe website to find out more, or get straight into participating in the soil analysis study here.

Participants receive a formal report with their soil results and are provided with information and advice about what to do in the event that they have soils containing elevated concentrations of metals and metalloids.

The program does ask for a modest $20 donation from participants and, while it’s not mandatory, it is appreciated and helps support the program.

It’s also worth mentioning that the same group also run a similar DustSafe program, which aims to inform residents of potentially harmful metals and other contaminants in and around their home.

Got a patch of land you have your eye on?

So, that’s how you can safely navigate a veggie patch.

If you’re looking for some sage guidance (see what we did there?) in terms of financing the purchase of that particular patch of land, get in touch and lettuce help you out today (sorry not sorry!).

How much extra will your mortgage cost when interest rates rise?

How much extra will your mortgage cost when interest rates rise?

After 18 straight RBA cash rate cuts it can be easy to dismiss the notion that interest rates might rise again. But if the cash rate returned to mid-2019 levels, how much extra would an average new mortgage holder expect to pay each month? Let’s take a look.

They say what goes up, must come down.

But does what goes down, have to come up? Well, the big banks think so – and sooner than many expect.

While the RBA held the official cash rate at 0.10% this month – and reaffirmed its positionthat it does not expect to lift the cash rate until 2024 – there is growing speculation the next cash rate hike could come as early as late 2022.

In June, Commonwealth Bank and Westpac predicted a rate hike around late 2022 to early 2023. In fact, they expect the official cash rate to hit 1.25% in the third quarter of 2023 and 2024, respectively.

Meanwhile, NAB this week hiked its 2-,3- and 4-year fixed rates by up to 0.10% for owner-occupiers paying principal and interest.

Banks can increase fixed rates as a way of heading off potential RBA rate hikes. Generally, the shorter the term of the fixed-rate that’s increased (ie. if 2-year fixed rates are increased), the sooner a bank may believe the next rate hike will be.

So if the big banks’ economists are onto something here, how much extra money should you be factoring into your monthly mortgage repayments if the official cash rate rises to 1.25% by 2023/24?

How much extra the average mortgage holder could expect to pay

The first thing to note is that the last time the RBA’s cash rate target was at 1.25% was June 2019 – so not that long ago (but boy, was it a different world back then!).

Modelling from Canstar, published on Domain, shows the average variable mortgage rate would lift from 3.21% to 4.36%, based on the current margin between the two rates.

Now, if you took out a $500,000 loan tomorrow, and the cash rate hit 1.25% in 2024, that modelling estimates your monthly repayments would increase $300 to $2464 per month.

ABC News modelling covers a similar scenario, with repayments up $324 per month.

That’s despite reducing your remaining loan balance to $468,770 after three years of repayments, and assuming the banks only add on the cash rate increase – and not any extra.

And then there’s of course the possibility that further RBA cash rate increases could soon follow.

If, for example, the average variable loan rate increased to 7.04% in 2031, where it was just a decade ago in 2011, Canstar estimates that same borrower who took out a $500,000 loan would pay $900 more in monthly repayments than they do now – even after a full decade’s worth of repayments.

We can run you through your options

It’s hard to imagine that interest rates could rise from the comfort of the current record low cash rate.

In fact, you have to go back as far as November 2010 to when the RBA last increased the cash rate (to 4.75%). We’ve had a run of 18 straight cuts since then.

But the big banks’ economists aren’t basing their modelling, predictions and fixed-term rate increases on nothing – and it pays to pay attention.

So if you’re worried about what rate increases could mean for your household budget in the coming years, get in touch with us today and we can run you through a number of options.

That might include fixing your interest rate for two, three, four or five years, or just fixing part of your mortgage (but not all of it).

Every household is different – it’s our job to help you find the right mortgage option for you!